Slavia Praha vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Fortuna Arena, Praha · updated 2026-10-21
Slavia Praha welcome Arsenal to Fortuna Arena in Praha in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Slavia Praha have played 3 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Arsenal have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 86% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and Slavia Praha at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Slavia Praha 1.24, Arsenal 1.77.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Slavia Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.03 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.1).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created, 0.90 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 61.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 57% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: season averages side by side
| Slavia Praha | Per match this season | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 2.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.90 |
| 16.7 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 5.7 | On target | 4.4 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 61.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 57% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 29% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Arsenal
- Ezri Konsa CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 61 · Secure passer, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Ben White RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Ball circulator, Hard to dribble past (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Declan Rice
Declan Rice, 27 · Arsenal · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73
Declan Rice, 27, plays as a central midfielder for Arsenal in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in passes and long balls. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 78.64 / 90 | 98% |
| Long balls | 3.33 / 90 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.20 / 90 | 84% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Long passer, Secure passer.
- What Declan Rice is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Declan Rice's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.24 for Slavia Praha and 1.77 for Arsenal - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Slavia Praha 1-2 Arsenal
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal betting tips
- Tip 1: Arsenal win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.00 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: questions and answers
When is Slavia Praha vs Arsenal?
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Arsenal played?
At Fortuna Arena, Praha, Slavia Praha's home ground.
Who will win Slavia Praha vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are the favourites: Slavia Praha 26%, draw 25%, Arsenal 49%. Our prediction is Slavia Praha 1-2 Arsenal.
Who is the player to watch in Slavia Praha vs Arsenal?
Declan Rice of Arsenal: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Slavia Praha vs Arsenal?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.