Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Sporting Lisbon welcome LASK Linz to Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
Sporting Lisbon have played 2 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate. LASK Linz have played 4 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Sporting Lisbon are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 15% and LASK Linz at 10%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.6% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sporting Lisbon -2 at 1.97, LASK Linz at 1.93. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Sporting Lisbon: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 9.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
LASK Linz: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.07 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 20.8 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 42.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz: season averages side by side
| Sporting Lisbon | Per match | LASK Linz |
|---|---|---|
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 2.50 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 9.5 | Shots | 20.8 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 2.8 |
| 17.5 | Tackles | 19.0 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 2 and 4 measured matches.
Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Sporting Lisbon have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of the last 3 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Sporting Lisbon 3, LASK Linz 8 - 3.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Sporting Lisbon 1-4 LASK Linz (October 1st 2020).
Head to head
In their last 3 meetings Sporting Lisbon won 1, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2020 | Sporting Lisbon | 1 – 4 | LASK Linz |
| 12 Dec 2019 | LASK Linz | 3 – 0 | Sporting Lisbon |
| 3 Oct 2019 | Sporting Lisbon | 2 – 1 | LASK Linz |
Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 2.59 for Sporting Lisbon and 1.22 for LASK Linz - with over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 66%. Sporting Lisbon have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 LASK Linz
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz betting tips
- Tip 1: Sporting Lisbon to win 75% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 73% by the model, 3.81 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz: questions and answers
When is Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz?
Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz played?
At Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa, Sporting Lisbon's home ground.
Who will win Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz?
Sporting Lisbon are the favourites: Sporting Lisbon 75%, draw 15%, LASK Linz 10%. Our prediction is Sporting Lisbon 2-1 LASK Linz.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Lisbon vs LASK Linz?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.