Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Merkur Arena, Graz · updated 2026-10-22
Sturm Graz welcome Celje to Merkur Arena in Graz in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Sturm Graz have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Celje have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sturm Graz are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 23% and Celje at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.87, Celje 0.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sturm Graz: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 36.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Celje: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.66 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.0).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.50.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: season averages side by side
| Sturm Graz | Per match this season | Celje |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.66 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 4.5 | On target | 5.0 |
| 36.8 | Possession % | 57.3 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 3.3 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.50 |
Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.87 for Sturm Graz and 0.87 for Celje - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 50%. Sturm Graz have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sturm Graz 1-0 Celje
Sturm Graz vs Celje betting tips
- Tip 1: Sturm Graz to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.74 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Sturm Graz vs Celje: questions and answers
When is Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Sturm Graz vs Celje is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Celje played?
At Merkur Arena, Graz, Sturm Graz's home ground.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Sturm Graz are the favourites: Sturm Graz 60%, draw 23%, Celje 16%. Our prediction is Sturm Graz 1-0 Celje.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.