Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Sturm Graz welcome Marseille to Merkur Arena in Graz in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Sturm Graz have played 4 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Marseille have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Marseille are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 28% and Sturm Graz at 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sturm Graz +0.25 at 2.05, Marseille at 1.83. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.96, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Sturm Graz: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 36.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: season averages side by side
| Sturm Graz | Per match | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.94 |
| 1.50 | Goals | 1.50 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| – | Pressure share % | 47.9 |
| 24.3 | Tackles | 13.3 |
| 16.0 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 6 measured matches.
Players to watch
Marseille
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 12% of his position)
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 67
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and accurate crosses. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 67
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.20 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.01 / 90 | 94% |
| Passes | 58.31 / 90 | 92% |
| Dribbled past | 0.34 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 1.01 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Ball circulator.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.80 for Sturm Graz and 1.03 for Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 54%. Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sturm Graz 1-2 Marseille
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sturm Graz vs Marseille betting tips
- Tip 1: Marseille win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.83 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Sturm Graz vs Marseille: questions and answers
When is Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Sturm Graz vs Marseille is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Marseille played?
At Merkur Arena, Graz, Sturm Graz's home ground.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Marseille are the favourites: Sturm Graz 30%, draw 28%, Marseille 42%. Our prediction is Sturm Graz 1-2 Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.