Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland · updated 2026-10-22
Sunderland welcome Dinamo Zagreb to Stadium of Light in Sunderland in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Sunderland have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Dinamo Zagreb have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Dinamo Zagreb are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 23% and Sunderland at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sunderland 1.49, Dinamo Zagreb 1.96.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.4).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Dinamo Zagreb: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.38 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.7).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: season averages side by side
| Sunderland | Per match this season | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.38 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | – |
| 11.6 | Shots | 19.3 |
| 4.0 | On target | 5.5 |
| 48.4 | Possession % | 60.3 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Nordi Mukiele RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Duel winner, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
- Granit Xhaka DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.27 xG/shot | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.66 / 90 | 84% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.92 / 90 | 78% |
| Big chances missed | 0.22 / 90 | 77% |
| Goals | 0.67 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.49 for Sunderland and 1.96 for Dinamo Zagreb - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 67%. Dinamo Zagreb have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb betting tips
- Tip 1: Dinamo Zagreb win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.44 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: questions and answers
When is Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb played?
At Stadium of Light, Sunderland, Sunderland's home ground.
Who will win Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Dinamo Zagreb are the favourites: Sunderland 29%, draw 23%, Dinamo Zagreb 48%. Our prediction is Sunderland 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb.
Who is the player to watch in Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.