Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction and Betting Tips
Premier League · Monday 26 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Sunderland welcome Leeds United to Stadium of Light in Sunderland in Premier League action on Monday 26 October 2026.
Sunderland have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Leeds United have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Sunderland 33%, the draw 29%, Leeds United 38%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sunderland 0 at 2.07, Leeds United at 1.83. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.12, under 1.78, which gives over 46%.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.3).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.51 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.0).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 44.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Sunderland vs Leeds United: season averages side by side
| Sunderland | Per match | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.51 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.33 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 2.7 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 52.5 | Pressure share % | 40.9 |
| 15.7 | Tackles | 16.7 |
| 12.2 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Sunderland vs Leeds United: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Sunderland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Sunderland 2, Leeds United 1 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Leeds United 0-1 Sunderland (March 3rd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Sunderland won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | Leeds United | 0 – 1 | Sunderland |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Sunderland | 1 – 1 | Leeds United |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Trai Hume RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Creator (top 4% of his position)
- Granit Xhaka DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 61 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 4% of his position)
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 17% of his position)
- Tarik Muharemović CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 68 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.27 xG/shot | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.66 / 90 | 84% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.92 / 90 | 80% |
| Big chances missed | 0.22 / 90 | 78% |
| Goals | 0.67 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction
Sunderland should have more of the ball, with Leeds United likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.36 for Sunderland and 1.41 for Leeds United - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sunderland vs Leeds United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Sunderland vs Leeds United in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
- Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Sunday 18 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Sunday 18 October 2026
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City Monday 19 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 24 October 2026
Sunderland vs Leeds United: questions and answers
When is Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Sunderland vs Leeds United is on Monday 26 October 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Sunderland vs Leeds United played?
At Stadium of Light, Sunderland, Sunderland's home ground.
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds United?
It is close: Sunderland 33%, draw 29%, Leeds United 38%. Our prediction is Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United.
Who is the player to watch in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.