Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 6 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg · referee F. Exner · full time
Full time: Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg
Elversberg beat FC Augsburg 4-3 in Bundesliga Matchday 6 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. The goals: Lukas Petkov 4', Lasse Günther 7', Maximilian Rohr 28', Fabian Rieder 45+9', Michael Gregoritsch 76', Frederik Schmahl 89', Mert Kömür 90'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Elversberg won it
The opening goal came in the 4th minute: Lukas Petkov for Elversberg, set up by Maurice Krattenmacher. Lasse Günther made it 2-0 to Elversberg in the 7th minute, set up by Maurice Krattenmacher. Maximilian Rohr made it 3-0 to Elversberg in the 28th minute, set up by Felix Keidel. Fabian Rieder from the penalty spot made it 3-1 to FC Augsburg in the 45th minute (+9). Michael Gregoritsch from the penalty spot made it 3-2 to FC Augsburg in the 76th minute. Frederik Schmahl made it 4-2 to Elversberg in the 89th minute, set up by Lukas Petkov. Mert Kömür made it 4-3 to FC Augsburg in the 90th minute, set up by Hennes Behrens.
It was 3-1 at half-time.
The referee, F. Exner, showed 7 yellow cards: 4 to Elversberg and 3 to FC Augsburg. Lukas Petkov missed a penalty for Elversberg in the 4 minute. Noel Futkeu missed a penalty for Elversberg in the 90 minute.
Elversberg: V. Wagner, 4-2-3-1 · FC Augsburg: M. Baum, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A winning call: the Match Board's pick was Over 3.25 at 1.97, and 4-3 is a win for it.
The estimate's most likely result was an Elversberg win at 41%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (9%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.6 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 68%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 70%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The bookmakers, margin removed, had an Elversberg win at 38%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 3.99 for Elversberg and 4.34 for FC Augsburg.
FC Augsburg left about 1.3 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Elversberg had 8 shots on target, FC Augsburg 8.
Elversberg's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
FC Augsburg had 60% of the ball, but Elversberg took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Elversberg came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.80 expected goals for and 1.99 against, and had won 50% of their matches.
FC Augsburg came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.7 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 2.11 expected goals for and 2.87 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
Elversberg vs FC Augsburg: the match in numbers
| Elversberg | Match statistics | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 40% | Ball possession | 60% |
| 3.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 4.34 |
| 19 | Total shots | 29 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 5 | Big chances | 4 |
| 326 | Total passes | 466 |
| 78% | Pass accuracy | 81% |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 22 | Tackles | 15 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Hennes Behrens (FC Augsburg), rated 8.3 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.
Elversberg
- Lukas Petkov 7.9 1 goal, 1 assist
- Lasse Günther 7.9 1 goal
- Maurice Krattenmacher 7.7 2 assists
- Maximilian Rohr 7.7 1 goal
- Nicolas Kristof 7.4
FC Augsburg
- Hennes Behrens 8.3 1 assist
- Arijon Ibrahimović 7.7
- Mert Kömür 7.7 1 goal
- Fabian Rieder 7.7 1 goal
- Michael Gregoritsch 7.0 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Chrislain Matsima at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Elversberg: RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga
- FC Augsburg: FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
What was the score in Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg (half-time 3-1), Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October 2026.
Who scored in Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
Lukas Petkov 4', Lasse Günther 7', Maximilian Rohr 28', Fabian Rieder 45+9', Michael Gregoritsch 76', Frederik Schmahl 89', Mert Kömür 90'.
Did Moneyball predict Elversberg vs FC Augsburg correctly?
A winning call: the Match Board's pick was Over 3.25 at 1.97, and 4-3 is a win for it.
Who was man of the match in Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
Hennes Behrens, rated 8.3 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
F. Exner.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.