Thun vs Hearts Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stockhorn Arena, Thun · updated 2026-10-22
Thun welcome Hearts to Stockhorn Arena in Thun in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Thun have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Hearts have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Hearts are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 19% and Thun at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Thun 1.68, Hearts 2.59.
- Over 2.5 goals: 80% · both teams to score: 76%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Thun: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Hearts: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.88 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 38.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Thun vs Hearts: season averages side by side
| Thun | Per match this season | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 3.0 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.88 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 16.3 |
| 4.8 | On target | 6.0 |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 38.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Thun vs Hearts prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals - 1.68 for Thun and 2.59 for Hearts - with over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams scoring at 76%. Hearts have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Thun 1-2 Hearts
Thun vs Hearts betting tips
- Tip 1: Hearts to win 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 80% by the model, 4.27 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 76% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- Kairat vs Panathinaikos Thursday 22 October 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Hearts Thursday 22 October 2026
- Pafos FC vs Riga Thursday 22 October 2026
- Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 22 October 2026
- Getafe vs Lugano Thursday 22 October 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann Thursday 22 October 2026
- Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion Thursday 22 October 2026
- Crvena Zvezda vs FC København Thursday 22 October 2026
Thun vs Hearts: questions and answers
When is Thun vs Hearts?
Thun vs Hearts is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Thun vs Hearts played?
At Stockhorn Arena, Thun, Thun's home ground.
Who will win Thun vs Hearts?
Hearts are the favourites: Thun 24%, draw 19%, Hearts 57%. Our prediction is Thun 1-2 Hearts.
How many goals will there be in Thun vs Hearts?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 80%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.