Torino vs Lecce Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino · updated 2026-10-24
Torino welcome Lecce to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Torino have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Lecce have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Torino are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and Lecce at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Torino 1.72, Lecce 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Torino: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.27 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Torino vs Lecce: season averages side by side
| Torino | Per match this season | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.27 |
| 1.52 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 11.1 |
| 3.6 | On target | 4.7 |
| 50.9 | Possession % | 40.4 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 29% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Torino
- Ardian Ismajli CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Daniel Bragança CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 58 · Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler (top 15% of his position)
Lecce
- Tiago Gabriel CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 13% of his position)
- Wladimiro Falcone GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga, 24 · Lecce · RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 67
Danilo Veiga, 24, plays as a full-back for Lecce in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 67
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.29 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 1.43 / 90 | 95% |
| Tackles | 3.14 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 5.43 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Danilo Veiga is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Danilo Veiga's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Torino vs Lecce prediction
Torino should have more of the ball, with Lecce likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lecce go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.72 for Torino and 1.21 for Lecce - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 58%. Torino have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Torino 2-1 Lecce
Torino vs Lecce betting tips
- Tip 1: Torino win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.94 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
Torino vs Lecce: questions and answers
When is Torino vs Lecce?
Torino vs Lecce is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Torino vs Lecce played?
At Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino, Torino's home ground.
Who will win Torino vs Lecce?
Torino are the favourites: Torino 49%, draw 25%, Lecce 26%. Our prediction is Torino 2-1 Lecce.
Who is the player to watch in Torino vs Lecce?
Danilo Veiga of Lecce: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Torino vs Lecce?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.