Torino vs Monza Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Friday 23 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino · updated 2026-10-17
Torino welcome Monza to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Torino have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Monza have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Torino 41%, the draw 25%, Monza 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Torino 1.65, Monza 1.47.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Torino: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 0.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Torino vs Monza: season averages side by side
| Torino | Per match this season | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 3.2 | On target | 6.0 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 44.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 0.7 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Players to watch
Torino
- Kian Fitz-Jim CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Creator (top 6% of his position)
- Saúl Coco CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
Monza
- Lorenzo Lucchesi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
- Ebenezer Akinsanmiro CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 56 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ardian Ismajli
Ardian Ismajli, 30 · Torino · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60
Ardian Ismajli, 30, plays as a centre-back for Torino in Serie A. Strongest for his role in clearances and interceptions. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 62
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 8.48 / 90 | 92% |
| Interceptions | 2.12 / 90 | 86% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.33 / 90 | 81% |
| Duels won | 4.85 / 90 | 61% |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Box defender, Reads the game, Dominant in the air.
- What Ardian Ismajli is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ardian Ismajli's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Torino vs Monza prediction
Torino should have more of the ball, with Monza likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Monza work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.65 for Torino and 1.47 for Monza - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 63%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Torino 1-1 Monza
Torino vs Monza betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.12 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Torino vs Monza: questions and answers
When is Torino vs Monza?
Torino vs Monza is on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Torino vs Monza played?
At Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino, Torino's home ground.
Who will win Torino vs Monza?
It is close: Torino 41%, draw 25%, Monza 34%. Our prediction is Torino 1-1 Monza.
Who is the player to watch in Torino vs Monza?
Ardian Ismajli of Torino: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Torino vs Monza?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.