Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse · updated 2026-10-22
Toulouse welcome Troyes to Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Toulouse have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Troyes have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Toulouse are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 21% and Troyes at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Toulouse 2.19, Troyes 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.71 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 39.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Toulouse vs Troyes: season averages side by side
| Toulouse | Per match this season | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| 1.71 | xG conceded | 1.68 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 4.6 | On target | 3.1 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 39.1 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 57% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 80 · Press-resistant, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Rasmus Nicolaisen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 8% of his position)
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 18% of his position)
- Lucas Maronnier RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Casper Tengstedt
Casper Tengstedt, 26 · Toulouse · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64
Casper Tengstedt, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Toulouse in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.43 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 95% |
| Goals | 1.43 / 90 | 95% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 82% |
| Key passes | 0.86 / 90 | 41% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
- What Casper Tengstedt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Casper Tengstedt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Toulouse vs Troyes prediction
Toulouse should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Toulouse like to take players on; Troyes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.19 for Toulouse and 1.15 for Troyes - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 61%. Toulouse have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Toulouse 2-1 Troyes
Toulouse vs Troyes betting tips
- Tip 1: Toulouse to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.35 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Lens vs Paris Saturday 24 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Sunday 25 October 2026
- Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre Sunday 25 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Lorient Sunday 25 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais Sunday 25 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Friday 30 October 2026
Toulouse vs Troyes: questions and answers
When is Toulouse vs Troyes?
Toulouse vs Troyes is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Toulouse vs Troyes played?
At Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse, Toulouse's home ground.
Who will win Toulouse vs Troyes?
Toulouse are the favourites: Toulouse 60%, draw 21%, Troyes 19%. Our prediction is Toulouse 2-1 Troyes.
Who is the player to watch in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Casper Tengstedt of Toulouse: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.