Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Papara Park, Trabzon · updated 2026-10-22
Trabzonspor welcome SC Freiburg to Papara Park in Trabzon in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Trabzonspor have played 2 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. SC Freiburg have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 18% and Trabzonspor at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Trabzonspor 1.13, SC Freiburg 2.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Trabzonspor: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 2.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 3.07 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 25.7 a match, 10.0 on target.
- Possession: 63.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 0.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg: season averages side by side
| Trabzonspor | Per match this season | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.0 | Goals scored | 3.3 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.07 |
| 15.0 | Shots | 25.7 |
| 2.5 | On target | 10.0 |
| 49.0 | Possession % | 63.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 0.7 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Jordy Makengo LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Dribbler, Hard to dribble past (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 66
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 66
- SS · Second striker Competent, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.83 / 90 | 98% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.95 / 90 | 91% |
| Shots | 3.76 / 90 | 82% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 71% |
| Goals | 0.56 / 90 | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.13 for Trabzonspor and 2.52 for SC Freiburg - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 63%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Trabzonspor 1-2 SC Freiburg
Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg betting tips
- Tip 1: SC Freiburg to win 67% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 71% by the model, 3.65 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg: questions and answers
When is Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg?
Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg played?
At Papara Park, Trabzon, Trabzonspor's home ground.
Who will win Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: Trabzonspor 15%, draw 18%, SC Freiburg 67%. Our prediction is Trabzonspor 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who is the player to watch in Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.