Troyes vs Lens Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Troyes welcome Lens to Stade de l'Aube in Troyes in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Troyes have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Lens have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lens are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and Troyes at 26%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (6.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Troyes +0.25 at 2.29, Lens at 1.69. The main goals line is 3: over 2.00, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.98 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Troyes vs Lens: season averages side by side
| Troyes | Per match | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.98 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.81 |
| 0.67 | Goals | 1.83 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 2.8 |
| 51.9 | Pressure share % | 58.2 |
| 19.2 | Tackles | 17.3 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Players to watch
Troyes
- Lucas Maronnier RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 19% of his position)
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 55 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 74
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 70
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 3.00 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.48 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected goals | 0.61 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 3.17 / 90 | 93% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Troyes vs Lens prediction
Lens should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Troyes are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.48 for Troyes and 1.87 for Lens - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 66%. Lens have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Troyes 1-2 Lens
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Troyes vs Lens betting tips
- Tip 1: Lens win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.35 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs AS Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris FC vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
Troyes vs Lens: questions and answers
When is Troyes vs Lens?
Troyes vs Lens is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Troyes vs Lens played?
At Stade de l'Aube, Troyes, Troyes's home ground.
Who will win Troyes vs Lens?
Lens are the favourites: Troyes 26%, draw 25%, Lens 49%. Our prediction is Troyes 1-2 Lens.
Who is the player to watch in Troyes vs Lens?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Lens?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.