TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Bayer Leverkusen to PreZero Arena in Sinsheim in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Bayer Leverkusen have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: TSG Hoffenheim 34%, the draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is TSG Hoffenheim 0 at 2.13, Bayer Leverkusen at 1.78. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.02, under 1.86, which gives over 48%.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 18.6 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 58.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Bayer Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.40 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 21.2 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.40 |
| 1.61 | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 1.80 | Goals | 2.80 |
| 18.6 | Shots | 21.2 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| 62.0 | Pressure share % | 66.7 |
| 15.2 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- TSG Hoffenheim have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: TSG Hoffenheim 5, Bayer Leverkusen 8 - 3.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished TSG Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen (January 17th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings TSG Hoffenheim won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 – 0 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 – 2 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 – 1 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 14 Sep 2024 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 – 4 | Bayer Leverkusen |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Vladimír Coufal RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 7% of his position)
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
Bayer Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 65 · High shot volume, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 4.71 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.84 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.57 / 90 | 77% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Bayer Leverkusen should have more of the ball; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Bayer Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.76 for TSG Hoffenheim and 2.21 for Bayer Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 74%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 3.97 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Bundesliga previews
- Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Sunday 18 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim Sunday 18 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Saturday 24 October 2026
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
At PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
It is close: TSG Hoffenheim 34%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 41%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
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