TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Lyon to PreZero Arena in Sinsheim in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Lyon have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, TSG Hoffenheim are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 26% and Lyon at 29%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is TSG Hoffenheim -0.5 at 2.01, Lyon at 1.88. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 1.98, which gives over 51%.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 18.6 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 58.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Lyon: form and key numbers
In style Lyon play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 1.61 | xG conceded | 1.08 |
| 1.80 | Goals | 1.83 |
| 18.6 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 62.0 | Pressure share % | 52.3 |
| 15.2 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 6 measured matches.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- TSG Hoffenheim have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 0 of the last 3 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: TSG Hoffenheim 7, Lyon 7 - 4.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished TSG Hoffenheim 2-2 Lyon (November 7th 2024).
Head to head
In their last 3 meetings TSG Hoffenheim won 0, drew 3 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2024 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 – 2 | Lyon |
| 7 Nov 2018 | Lyon | 2 – 2 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 23 Oct 2018 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 – 3 | Lyon |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Leon Avdullahu DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Press-resistant, Disciplined (top 7% of his position)
Lyon
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 73 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Ernest Nuamah RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal, 34 · TSG Hoffenheim · RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65
Vladimír Coufal, 34, plays as a wing-back for TSG Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 68
- RWB · Wing-back Natural, 65
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.52 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 2.73 / 90 | 92% |
| Dribbled past | 0.21 / 90 | 90% |
| Interceptions | 1.47 / 90 | 78% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.30 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Hard to dribble past.
- What Vladimír Coufal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vladimír Coufal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon prediction
TSG Hoffenheim should have more of the ball; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Lyon go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.40 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.94 for Lyon - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 65%. TSG Hoffenheim have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Lyon
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon betting tips
- Tip 1: TSG Hoffenheim win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.34 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon played?
At PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
TSG Hoffenheim are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 44%, draw 26%, Lyon 29%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Lyon.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
Vladimír Coufal of TSG Hoffenheim: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.