TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 Schalke 04: Result, Report and Stats
Bundesliga · Monday 9 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: TSG Hoffenheim 2 – 1 Schalke 04
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave TSG Hoffenheim win 59%. The result went the way the consensus leaned.
- 3 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Schalke 04 to SNP Arena in Sinsheim in Bundesliga action on Monday 9 November 2026.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate. Schalke 04 have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 11% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, TSG Hoffenheim are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 22% and Schalke 04 at 19%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3 goals: 51%.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.93 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 54.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Schalke 04: form and key numbers
In style Schalke 04 are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.91 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.1).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 1.52 | xG conceded | 1.91 |
| 1.78 | Goals | 0.56 |
| 17.6 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 2.1 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 60.1 | Pressure share % | 29.5 |
| 14.9 | Tackles | 21.3 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 9 and 9 measured matches.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- TSG Hoffenheim have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 1 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: TSG Hoffenheim 2, Schalke 04 1 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Schalke 04 (November 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 1 meetings TSG Hoffenheim won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 – 1 | Schalke 04 |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Koki Machida CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 70 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
Schalke 04
- Loris Karius GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Nikola Katic CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Junior Adamu
Junior Adamu, 25 · Schalke 04 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 67
Junior Adamu, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 67
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
- RW · Winger Competent, 19
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.03 / 90 | 85% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 84% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.63 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.52 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air.
- What Junior Adamu is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Junior Adamu's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 prediction
TSG Hoffenheim should have more of the ball, with Schalke 04 likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.86 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.00 for Schalke 04 - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 54%. TSG Hoffenheim have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Schalke 04
TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: what the numbers say
- 1. TSG Hoffenheim win, the likeliest result 59% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.86 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 is on Monday 9 November 2026, in the Bundesliga.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 played?
At SNP Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?
TSG Hoffenheim are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 59%, draw 22%, Schalke 04 19%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Schalke 04.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?
Junior Adamu of Schalke 04: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.