Turkey vs France Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League A · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Turkey welcome France in UEFA Nations League A action on Saturday 26 September 2026.
Turkey have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. France have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, France are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 20% and Turkey at 16%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Turkey +1 at 2.06, France at 1.62. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.94, under 1.72, which gives over 47%.
Turkey vs France: season averages side by side
| Turkey | Per match | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.50 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.00 |
| 2.07 | Goals | 2.48 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 17.1 | Tackles | 13.7 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 18 and 36 measured matches.
Turkey vs France prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Turkey and 1.23 for France - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. France have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Turkey 1-2 France
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Turkey vs France betting tips
- Tip 1: France to win 64% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Turkey vs France: questions and answers
When is Turkey vs France?
Turkey vs France is on Saturday 26 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Turkey vs France?
France are the favourites: Turkey 16%, draw 20%, France 64%. Our prediction is Turkey 1-2 France.
How many goals will there be in Turkey vs France?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.