Turkey vs France: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League A · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Turkey host France in the UEFA Nations League A on Saturday 26 September 2026. The bookmakers make France clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 20% and Turkey at 16%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Turkey +1 at 2.06, France at 1.62. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.94, under 1.72, which gives over 47%.
Form in numbers
- France create more: 2.50 expected goals a match against 1.90 for Turkey.
- France give away less, 1.00 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Turkey 14.9 (– on target), France 13.8 (– on target).
| Turkey | Per match | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.50 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.00 |
| 2.07 | Goals | 2.48 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 17.1 | Tackles | 13.7 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 18 and 36 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.