Udinese vs AC Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Dacia Arena, Udine · updated 2026-10-17
Udinese welcome AC Milan to Dacia Arena in Udine in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Udinese have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. AC Milan have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AC Milan are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and Udinese at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Udinese 1.23, AC Milan 1.74.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Udinese: form and key numbers
In style Udinese play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Udinese vs AC Milan: season averages side by side
| Udinese | Per match this season | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 12.5 |
| 4.2 | On target | 4.5 |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 60.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Udinese
- Mërgim Vojvoda RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Oumar Solet CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 28% of his position)
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
- Pervis Estupiñán LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze, 27 · AC Milan · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61
Samuel Chukwueze, 27, plays as a winger for AC Milan in Serie A. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 61
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 57
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.96 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.40 / 90 | 94% |
| Dispossessed | 0.57 / 90 | 88% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.34 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 2.10 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
- What Samuel Chukwueze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Samuel Chukwueze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Udinese vs AC Milan prediction
AC Milan should have more of the ball, with Udinese likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.23 for Udinese and 1.74 for AC Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 59%. AC Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Udinese 1-2 AC Milan
Udinese vs AC Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: AC Milan win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.97 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Udinese vs AC Milan: questions and answers
When is Udinese vs AC Milan?
Udinese vs AC Milan is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Udinese vs AC Milan played?
At Dacia Arena, Udine, Udinese's home ground.
Who will win Udinese vs AC Milan?
AC Milan are the favourites: Udinese 26%, draw 25%, AC Milan 49%. Our prediction is Udinese 1-2 AC Milan.
Who is the player to watch in Udinese vs AC Milan?
Samuel Chukwueze of AC Milan: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Udinese vs AC Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.