Udinese vs Lecce Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Udinese welcome Lecce to Dacia Arena in Udine in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Udinese have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Lecce have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Udinese are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 28% and Lecce at 24%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Udinese -0.5 at 1.89, Lecce at 2.01. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.01, under 1.88, which gives over 48%.
Udinese: form and key numbers
In style Udinese play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 41.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Udinese vs Lecce: season averages side by side
| Udinese | Per match | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 1.99 |
| 1.50 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 49.3 | Pressure share % | 29.5 |
| 14.2 | Tackles | 21.7 |
| 11.2 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Udinese vs Lecce: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Udinese have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Udinese 6, Lecce 4 - 2.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lecce 2-1 Udinese (February 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Udinese won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Lecce | 2 – 1 | Udinese |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Udinese | 3 – 2 | Lecce |
| 21 Feb 2025 | Lecce | 0 – 1 | Udinese |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Udinese | 1 – 0 | Lecce |
Players to watch
Udinese
- Mërgim Vojvoda RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Oumar Solet CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 28% of his position)
Lecce
- Wladimiro Falcone GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 51 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
- Danilo Veiga RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 51 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel, 21 · Lecce · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62
Tiago Gabriel, 21, plays as a centre-back for Lecce in Serie A. Strongest for his role in duels won and pass accuracy. Weakest in long balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 68
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 6.78 / 90 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy | 94% | 89% |
| Tackles | 2.44 / 90 | 86% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 82% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.98 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Secure passer, Ball-winner.
- What Tiago Gabriel is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tiago Gabriel's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Udinese vs Lecce prediction
Udinese should have more of the ball, with Lecce likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Udinese work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.88 for Udinese and 1.31 for Lecce - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 62%. Udinese have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Udinese 2-1 Lecce
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Udinese vs Lecce betting tips
- Tip 1: Udinese win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
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- Fiorentina vs Como Sunday 18 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Sunday 18 October 2026
- Juventus vs Lazio Sunday 18 October 2026
Udinese vs Lecce: questions and answers
When is Udinese vs Lecce?
Udinese vs Lecce is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is Udinese vs Lecce played?
At Dacia Arena, Udine, Udinese's home ground.
Who will win Udinese vs Lecce?
Udinese are the favourites: Udinese 48%, draw 28%, Lecce 24%. Our prediction is Udinese 2-1 Lecce.
Who is the player to watch in Udinese vs Lecce?
Tiago Gabriel of Lecce: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Udinese vs Lecce?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.