Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Union Saint-Gilloise welcome Hapoel Beer Sheva to Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Union Saint-Gilloise have played 2 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Hapoel Beer Sheva have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Union Saint-Gilloise are clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 18% and Hapoel Beer Sheva at 12%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (13.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Union Saint-Gilloise -1.5 at 1.84, Hapoel Beer Sheva at 2.04. The main goals line is 3: over 1.81, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Union Saint-Gilloise: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 39.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 4.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.48.
Hapoel Beer Sheva: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.51 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.9).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: season averages side by side
| Union Saint-Gilloise | Per match | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.51 |
| 2.50 | Goals | 1.67 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 3.0 | Big chances missed | 0.3 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 7.7 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 4.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 2 and 6 measured matches.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.68 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.53 for Hapoel Beer Sheva - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. Union Saint-Gilloise have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva betting tips
- Tip 1: Union Saint-Gilloise to win 70% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.20 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 12.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: questions and answers
When is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva played?
At Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels, Union Saint-Gilloise's home ground.
Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Union Saint-Gilloise are the favourites: Union Saint-Gilloise 70%, draw 18%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 12%. Our prediction is Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva.
How many goals will there be in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.