Unión Santa Fe 2-0 Vélez Sarsfield: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Unión Santa Fe won it

Unión Santa Fe struck first through Cristian Tarragona from the penalty spot in the 12th minute. Cristian Tarragona made it 2-0 to Unión Santa Fe in the 28th minute, set up by Marcelo Estigarribia.

It was 2-0 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

Cristian Tarragona scored twice.

Thiago Silvero of Vélez Sarsfield was sent off in the 10th minute. The referee, C. Gariano, showed 6 yellow cards: 4 to Unión Santa Fe and 2 to Vélez Sarsfield.

Unión Santa Fe: L. Madelón, 4-4-2 · Vélez Sarsfield: G. Barros Schelotto, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

An Unión Santa Fe win was the estimate's call at 38%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 2 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 2 goals the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 57%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.55 for Unión Santa Fe and 2.62 for Vélez Sarsfield.

Unión Santa Fe scored about 1.5 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Vélez Sarsfield left about 2.6 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Vélez Sarsfield created the better chances, 2.62 xG to 0.55, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Unión Santa Fe to create more, and Vélez Sarsfield did.

Unión Santa Fe had 4 shots on target, Vélez Sarsfield 1.

Vélez Sarsfield had 58% of the ball, but Unión Santa Fe took the points.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Unión Santa Fe came into it with 34 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.34 expected goals for and 1.16 against, and had won 35% of their matches.

Vélez Sarsfield came into it with 33 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.18 expected goals for and 1.32 against, and had won 42% of their matches.

Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Cristian Tarragona (Unión Santa Fe), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Unión Santa Fe

• Cristian Tarragona 8.5 2 goals
• Marcelo Estigarribia 7.8 1 assist
• Ignacio Isla 7.4
• Lucas Ayala 7.2
• Matías Mansilla 7.0

Vélez Sarsfield

• Lucas Robertone 7.3
• Leo Cristaldo 7.1
• Manuel Lanzini 7.0
• Ronaldo Martínez 6.9
• Lisandro Magallán 6.8

The lowest-rated starter was Thiago Silvero at 4.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Vélez Sarsfield: Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano Friday 20 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield

What was the score in Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Unión Santa Fe 2-0 Vélez Sarsfield (half-time 2-0), Liga Profesional Argentina, Friday 6 November 2026.

Who scored in Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Cristian Tarragona 12', Cristian Tarragona 28'.

Did Moneyball predict Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield correctly?

An Unión Santa Fe win was the estimate's call at 38%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.

Who was man of the match in Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Cristian Tarragona, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?

C. Gariano.