Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Valencia welcome Athletic Bilbao to Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Valencia have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Athletic Bilbao have played 6 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Athletic Bilbao are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 29% and Valencia at 28%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Valencia +0.25 at 2.02, Athletic Bilbao at 1.89. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.14, under 1.75, which gives over 45%.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.98 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 2.6 on target.
- Possession: 47.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Athletic Bilbao: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Bilbao keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: season averages side by side
| Valencia | Per match | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| 0.98 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 0.75 | Goals | 1.17 |
| 10.5 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 2.6 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 31.7 | Pressure share % | 58.1 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 16.3 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 6 measured matches.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Valencia have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Valencia 5, Athletic Bilbao 4 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Valencia (May 10th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Valencia won 3, drew 0 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 – 1 | Valencia |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Valencia | 2 – 0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 18 May 2025 | Valencia | 0 – 1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 – 0 | Valencia |
| 17 Mar 2016 | Valencia | 2 – 1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 10 Mar 2016 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 – 0 | Valencia |
Players to watch
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Pepelu DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Disciplined, Long passer (top 8% of his position)
Athletic Bilbao
- Yuri Berchiche LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
- Cem Gürsoy CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Long passer (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: David Otorbi
David Otorbi, 19 · Valencia · WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62
David Otorbi, 19, plays as a winger for Valencia in La Liga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 62
- RW · Winger Natural, 62
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.61 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 79% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.84 / 90 | 71% |
| Dispossessed | 0.92 / 90 | 65% |
| Expected goals | 0.23 / 90 | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator.
- What David Otorbi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open David Otorbi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
Athletic Bilbao should have more of the ball, with Valencia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Valencia like to take players on; Athletic Bilbao work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.02 for Valencia and 1.40 for Athletic Bilbao - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 49%. Athletic Bilbao have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Valencia 0-1 Athletic Bilbao
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao betting tips
- Tip 1: Athletic Bilbao win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: questions and answers
When is Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Where is Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao played?
At Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, Valencia's home ground.
Who will win Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
Athletic Bilbao are the favourites: Valencia 28%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 44%. Our prediction is Valencia 0-1 Athletic Bilbao.
Who is the player to watch in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
David Otorbi of Valencia: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.