Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 12
La Liga · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia · updated 2026-10-24
Valencia welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia in La Liga Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Valencia have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 11% of them. At home they average 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. Real Madrid have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 78% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Real Madrid are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 23% and Valencia at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Valencia 0.92, Real Madrid 1.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.19 a match created, 1.18 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: season averages side by side
| Valencia | Per match this season | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 2.6 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.19 |
| 1.45 | xG conceded | 1.18 |
| 11.1 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 2.7 | On target | 7.2 |
| 46.3 | Possession % | 53.1 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Players to watch
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- David Otorbi WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 22% of his position)
Real Madrid
- Vinicius Junior LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 77 · Draws fouls, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
- Kylian Mbappé CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 75 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 85
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 85
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 5.54 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.76 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.43 / 90 | 98% |
| Through balls | 0.36 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.32 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction
Real Madrid should have more of the ball, with Valencia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 0.92 for Valencia and 1.95 for Real Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 52%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid
Valencia vs Real Madrid betting tips
- Tip 1: Real Madrid to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.87 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Real Sociedad vs Levante Sunday 25 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sevilla vs Osasuna Monday 26 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Espanyol Friday 30 October 2026
- Levante vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 31 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 31 October 2026
Valencia vs Real Madrid: questions and answers
When is Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Valencia vs Real Madrid is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 12.
Where is Valencia vs Real Madrid played?
At Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, Valencia's home ground.
Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid are the favourites: Valencia 17%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 61%. Our prediction is Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 85 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.