Valencia 0–3 Real Madrid: Result, Report and Stats
La Liga · Sunday 8 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Valencia 0 – 3 Real Madrid
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave Real Madrid win 74%. The result went the way the consensus leaned.
- 3 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Valencia welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia in La Liga action on Sunday 8 November 2026.
Valencia have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate. Real Madrid have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Real Madrid are clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16% and Valencia at 10%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3.25 goals: 47%.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.51 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.18 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.8).
- Shots: 17.4 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.13.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: season averages side by side
| Valencia | Per match | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.18 |
| 1.51 | xG conceded | 1.15 |
| 0.67 | Goals | 2.58 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 17.4 |
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 7.3 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 2.3 |
| 29.9 | Pressure share % | 67.1 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 8.5 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 12 and 12 measured matches.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Valencia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Valencia 3, Real Madrid 12 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid (November 7th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Valencia won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Valencia | 0 – 3 | Real Madrid |
| 8 Feb 2026 | Valencia | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Real Madrid | 4 – 0 | Valencia |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Real Madrid | 1 – 2 | Valencia |
| 3 Jan 2025 | Valencia | 1 – 2 | Real Madrid |
Players to watch
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 65 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
- David Otorbi RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 59 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 23% of his position)
Real Madrid
- Jude Bellingham AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
- Kylian Mbappé CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73 · High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 91
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 91
- RW · Winger Natural, 90
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 86
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 5.08 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.80 / 90 | 100% |
| Big chances created | 1.69 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.36 / 90 | 95% |
| Through balls | 0.24 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction
Real Madrid should have more of the ball, with Valencia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 0.82 for Valencia and 2.10 for Real Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 50%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid
Valencia vs Real Madrid: what the numbers say
- 1. Real Madrid win, the likeliest result 74% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.92 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: questions and answers
When is Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Valencia vs Real Madrid is on Sunday 8 November 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Valencia vs Real Madrid played?
At Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, Valencia's home ground.
Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid are the favourites: Valencia 10%, draw 16%, Real Madrid 74%. Our prediction is Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 91 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.