Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 10
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia · updated 2026-10-17
Valencia welcome Villarreal to Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia in La Liga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Valencia have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Villarreal have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Villarreal are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 25% and Valencia at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Valencia 1.17, Villarreal 1.73.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.98 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 2.6 on target.
- Possession: 47.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Valencia vs Villarreal: season averages side by side
| Valencia | Per match this season | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 0.98 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.12 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.31 |
| 10.5 | Shots | 15.9 |
| 2.6 | On target | 6.3 |
| 47.5 | Possession % | 60.9 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 38% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- David Otorbi WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 16% of his position)
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Alex Freeman RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Alberto Moleiro, 23, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 94% |
| Big chances created | 0.72 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.30 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Crosser.
- What Alberto Moleiro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alberto Moleiro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Valencia vs Villarreal prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball, with Valencia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.17 for Valencia and 1.73 for Villarreal - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 57%. Villarreal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Valencia 1-2 Villarreal
Valencia vs Villarreal betting tips
- Tip 1: Villarreal win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Saturday 24 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
- Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Sunday 25 October 2026
- Real Sociedad vs Levante Sunday 25 October 2026
Valencia vs Villarreal: questions and answers
When is Valencia vs Villarreal?
Valencia vs Villarreal is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 10.
Where is Valencia vs Villarreal played?
At Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, Valencia's home ground.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Villarreal are the favourites: Valencia 25%, draw 25%, Villarreal 50%. Our prediction is Valencia 1-2 Villarreal.
Who is the player to watch in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.