Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction and Betting Tips
La Liga · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Valencia welcome Villarreal to Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia in La Liga action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Valencia have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 11% of them. At home they average 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. Villarreal have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Villarreal are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 28% and Valencia at 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Valencia +0.5 at 1.79, Villarreal at 2.12. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.97, under 1.92, which gives over 49%.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.11 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.0).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Valencia vs Villarreal: season averages side by side
| Valencia | Per match | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.11 |
| 1.45 | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 0.67 | Goals | 1.44 |
| 11.1 | Shots | 16.3 |
| 2.7 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 2.3 |
| 35.7 | Pressure share % | 67.0 |
| 16.9 | Tackles | 14.4 |
| 10.9 | Fouls | 11.1 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 9 and 9 measured matches.
Valencia vs Villarreal: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Valencia have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Valencia 9, Villarreal 7 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Villarreal 2-1 Valencia (February 22nd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Valencia won 2, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Villarreal | 2 – 1 | Valencia |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Valencia | 0 – 2 | Villarreal |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Villarreal | 1 – 1 | Valencia |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Valencia | 1 – 1 | Villarreal |
| 18 Apr 2019 | Valencia | 2 – 0 | Villarreal |
| 11 Apr 2019 | Villarreal | 1 – 3 | Valencia |
Players to watch
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- David Otorbi WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 21% of his position)
Villarreal
- Alex Freeman RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Juan Foyth CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Blocks shots, Ball circulator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 71
Alberto Moleiro, 23, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 71
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 67
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.41 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.53 / 90 | 98% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.69 / 90 | 98% |
| Big chances created | 0.61 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.36 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Crosser.
- What Alberto Moleiro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alberto Moleiro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Valencia vs Villarreal prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball, with Valencia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.05 for Valencia and 1.58 for Villarreal - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 52%. Villarreal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Valencia 0-1 Villarreal
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Valencia vs Villarreal betting tips
- Tip 1: Villarreal win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Valencia vs Villarreal: questions and answers
When is Valencia vs Villarreal?
Valencia vs Villarreal is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Valencia vs Villarreal played?
At Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, Valencia's home ground.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Villarreal are the favourites: Valencia 30%, draw 28%, Villarreal 43%. Our prediction is Valencia 0-1 Villarreal.
Who is the player to watch in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.