Venezia vs Inter Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia · updated 2026-10-17
Venezia welcome Inter to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venezia in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Venezia have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Inter have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 17% and Venezia at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Venezia 1.30, Inter 2.81.
- Over 2.5 goals: 78% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Venezia: form and key numbers
In style Venezia keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.58 a match created, 2.12 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.1).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 54.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Inter: form and key numbers
In style Inter keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.80 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 22.5 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 62.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Venezia vs Inter: season averages side by side
| Venezia | Per match this season | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.80 |
| 2.12 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 22.5 |
| 4.3 | On target | 7.2 |
| 54.1 | Possession % | 62.3 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.9 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 7.09 |
Players to watch
Venezia
- John Yeboah SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, High shot volume (top 3% of his position)
- Filip Stanković GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
Inter
- Manuel Akanji CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram, 29 · Inter · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 74
Marcus Thuram, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.28 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.87 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.86 / 90 | 85% |
| Goals | 0.93 / 90 | 82% |
| Duels won | 6.52 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator.
- What Marcus Thuram is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Thuram's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Venezia vs Inter prediction
Inter should have more of the ball; Inter work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.1 goals - 1.30 for Venezia and 2.81 for Inter - with over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 69%. Inter have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Venezia 1-2 Inter
Venezia vs Inter betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter to win 69% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 78% by the model, 4.11 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Venezia vs Inter: questions and answers
When is Venezia vs Inter?
Venezia vs Inter is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Venezia vs Inter played?
At Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia, Venezia's home ground.
Who will win Venezia vs Inter?
Inter are the favourites: Venezia 15%, draw 17%, Inter 69%. Our prediction is Venezia 1-2 Inter.
Who is the player to watch in Venezia vs Inter?
Marcus Thuram of Inter: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Venezia vs Inter?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 78%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.