VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
VfB Stuttgart welcome Atletico Madrid to MHPArena in Stuttgart in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026.
VfB Stuttgart have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Atletico Madrid have played 9 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 78% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 57% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Atletico Madrid are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and VfB Stuttgart at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is VfB Stuttgart +0.25 at 2.05, Atletico Madrid at 1.85. The main goals line is 3: over 1.88, under 2.01, which gives over 52%.
VfB Stuttgart: form and key numbers
In style VfB Stuttgart keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.94 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 17.2 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 54.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Atletico Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atletico Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: season averages side by side
| VfB Stuttgart | Per match | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 1.33 | Goals | 2.11 |
| 17.2 | Shots | 17.7 |
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 3.5 | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| 54.8 | Pressure share % | 71.8 |
| 14.2 | Tackles | 16.6 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 9 measured matches.
Players to watch
VfB Stuttgart
- Bilal El Khannouss AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 71 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 6% of his position)
- Jeff Chabot CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
Atletico Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 74 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 3% of his position)
- Koke CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 83
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29, plays as a wing-back for VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and accurate crosses. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 83
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 81
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.54 / 90 | 99% |
| Accurate crosses | 3.08 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 3.08 / 90 | 96% |
| Interceptions | 1.85 / 90 | 90% |
| Tackles | 3.08 / 90 | 89% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
- What Maximilian Mittelstädt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maximilian Mittelstädt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Atletico Madrid should have more of the ball; VfB Stuttgart are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Atletico Madrid like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.33 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.89 for Atletico Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 63%. Atletico Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Atletico Madrid
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid betting tips
- Tip 1: Atletico Madrid win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.22 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: questions and answers
When is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid played?
At MHPArena, Stuttgart, VfB Stuttgart's home ground.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid are the favourites: VfB Stuttgart 31%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 43%. Our prediction is VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 83 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
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