Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Doosan Aréna, Plzeň · updated 2026-10-17
Viktoria Plzeň welcome Levski Sofia to Doosan Aréna in Plzeň in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Viktoria Plzeň have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Levski Sofia have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Viktoria Plzeň 41%, the draw 28%, Levski Sofia 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Viktoria Plzeň 1.42, Levski Sofia 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Viktoria Plzeň: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 19.8 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Levski Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.31 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.5).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 53.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (20% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia: season averages side by side
| Viktoria Plzeň | Per match this season | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.31 |
| 19.8 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 7.3 | On target | 3.4 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 53.1 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 63% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.42 for Viktoria Plzeň and 1.20 for Levski Sofia - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Viktoria Plzeň 1-1 Levski Sofia
Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.62 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia: questions and answers
When is Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia?
Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia played?
At Doosan Aréna, Plzeň, Viktoria Plzeň's home ground.
Who will win Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia?
It is close: Viktoria Plzeň 41%, draw 28%, Levski Sofia 31%. Our prediction is Viktoria Plzeň 1-1 Levski Sofia.
How many goals will there be in Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.