Villarreal vs Elche CF Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Villarreal welcome Elche CF to Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Villarreal have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Elche CF have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Villarreal are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 20% and Elche CF at 16%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.6% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Villarreal -1.25 at 1.99, Elche CF at 1.92. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.98, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Elche CF: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Villarreal vs Elche CF: season averages side by side
| Villarreal | Per match | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.31 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 1.63 | Goals | 1.38 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 11.5 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 2.1 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 65.2 | Pressure share % | 45.0 |
| 14.9 | Tackles | 15.1 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Villarreal vs Elche CF: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Villarreal have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Villarreal 5, Elche CF 2 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Villarreal 2-1 Elche CF (March 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Villarreal won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Villarreal | 2 – 1 | Elche CF |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Elche CF | 1 – 3 | Villarreal |
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Alex Freeman RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Elche CF
- Federico Redondo DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 71 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 5% of his position)
- Fer Niño CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 64 · Accurate shooter, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Alberto Moleiro, 23, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 94% |
| Big chances created | 0.72 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.30 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Crosser.
- What Alberto Moleiro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alberto Moleiro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Villarreal vs Elche CF prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball; Villarreal like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.19 for Villarreal and 1.25 for Elche CF - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 64%. Villarreal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Villarreal 2-1 Elche CF
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Villarreal vs Elche CF betting tips
- Tip 1: Villarreal to win 64% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.45 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Villarreal vs Elche CF in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Villarreal vs Elche CF: questions and answers
When is Villarreal vs Elche CF?
Villarreal vs Elche CF is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Where is Villarreal vs Elche CF played?
At Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Villarreal's home ground.
Who will win Villarreal vs Elche CF?
Villarreal are the favourites: Villarreal 64%, draw 20%, Elche CF 16%. Our prediction is Villarreal 2-1 Elche CF.
Who is the player to watch in Villarreal vs Elche CF?
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Elche CF?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.