Villarreal 3–1 Napoli: Result, Report and Stats
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Villarreal 3 – 1 Napoli
- Before kick-off the prices, margin removed, gave Villarreal win 41%. The result went the way the market leaned.
- Asian handicap Villarreal -0.25: won for Villarreal backers.
- Goals line 2.75: 4 goals, so the over won and the under lost.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in the Match Centre.
Villarreal welcome Napoli to Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
Villarreal have played 8 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Napoli have played 7 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Villarreal 41%, the draw 27%, Napoli 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Villarreal -0.25 at 1.98, Napoli at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.93, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Villarreal vs Napoli: season averages side by side
| Villarreal | Per match | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 |
| 1.31 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 1.63 | Goals | 1.43 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 16.7 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 2.1 | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| 65.2 | Pressure share % | 51.4 |
| 14.9 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 8.9 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 7 measured matches.
Villarreal vs Napoli: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Villarreal have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 of the last 7 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Villarreal 7, Napoli 7 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Villarreal 3-1 Napoli (October 13th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Villarreal won 3, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Villarreal | 3 – 1 | Napoli |
| 25 Feb 2016 | Napoli | 1 – 1 | Villarreal |
| 18 Feb 2016 | Villarreal | 1 – 0 | Napoli |
| 7 Dec 2011 | Villarreal | 0 – 2 | Napoli |
| 27 Sep 2011 | Napoli | 2 – 0 | Villarreal |
| 24 Feb 2011 | Villarreal | 2 – 1 | Napoli |
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Alex Freeman RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Kevin De Bruyne AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 67 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Alberto Moleiro, 23, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 94% |
| Big chances created | 0.72 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.30 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Crosser.
- What Alberto Moleiro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alberto Moleiro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Villarreal vs Napoli prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball; Villarreal like to take players on; Napoli are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.78 for Villarreal and 1.48 for Napoli - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Villarreal 1-1 Napoli
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Villarreal vs Napoli betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.26 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Villarreal vs Napoli in the Match Centre Follow it live
Villarreal vs Napoli: questions and answers
When is Villarreal vs Napoli?
Villarreal vs Napoli is on Wednesday 14 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Villarreal vs Napoli played?
At Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Villarreal's home ground.
Who will win Villarreal vs Napoli?
It is close: Villarreal 41%, draw 27%, Napoli 31%. Our prediction is Villarreal 1-1 Napoli.
Who is the player to watch in Villarreal vs Napoli?
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Napoli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
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