Vitoria BA vs Fluminense Prediction and Stats
Brasileirao · Friday 6 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Vitoria BA welcome Fluminense in Brasileirao action on Friday 6 November 2026.
Vitoria BA have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Fluminense have played 34 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 47% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, there is little to separate them: Vitoria BA 34%, the draw 29%, Fluminense 37%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.25 goals: 53%.
Fluminense: form and key numbers
In style Fluminense keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.6).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (29% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Vitoria BA vs Fluminense: season averages side by side
| Vitoria BA | Per match | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| – | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.40 |
| – | Goals | 1.62 |
| – | Shots | 14.7 |
| – | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| – | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| – | Pressure share % | 55.3 |
| – | Tackles | 14.9 |
| – | Fouls | 13.3 |
| – | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Fluminense
- Igor Rabello CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 13% of his position)
- Luciano Acosta AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, Creator (top 14% of his position)
Vitoria BA vs Fluminense prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.46 for Vitoria BA and 1.35 for Fluminense - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Vitoria BA 1-1 Fluminense
Vitoria BA vs Fluminense: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.81 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Vitoria BA vs Fluminense: questions and answers
When is Vitoria BA vs Fluminense?
Vitoria BA vs Fluminense is on Friday 6 November 2026, in Brasileirao.
Who will win Vitoria BA vs Fluminense?
It is close: Vitoria BA 34%, draw 29%, Fluminense 37%. Our prediction is Vitoria BA 1-1 Fluminense.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria BA vs Fluminense?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.