Vitoria Guimaraes 1–2 Porto: Result, Report and Stats
Liga Portugal · Monday 9 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Vitoria Guimaraes 1 – 2 Porto
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave Porto win 60%. The result went the way the consensus leaned.
- 3 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Vitoria Guimaraes welcome Porto to Estádio D. Afonso Henriques in Guimarães in Liga Portugal action on Monday 9 November 2026.
Vitoria Guimaraes have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate. Porto have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 55% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Porto are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 23% and Vitoria Guimaraes at 16%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.5 goals: 52%.
Vitoria Guimaraes: form and key numbers
In style Vitoria Guimaraes keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.02 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.6).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Porto: form and key numbers
In style Porto keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 0.93 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 56.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto: season averages side by side
| Vitoria Guimaraes | Per match | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.26 |
| 1.02 | xG conceded | 0.93 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 2.45 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 2.2 |
| 59.8 | Pressure share % | 69.1 |
| 17.4 | Tackles | 14.2 |
| 15.9 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 11 and 11 measured matches.
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Vitoria Guimaraes have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Vitoria Guimaraes 2, Porto 10 - 2.4 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 Porto (November 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Vitoria Guimaraes won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 1 – 2 | Porto |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 0 – 1 | Porto |
| 11 Aug 2025 | Porto | 3 – 0 | Vitoria Guimaraes |
| 24 Feb 2025 | Porto | 1 – 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 0 – 3 | Porto |
Players to watch
Vitoria Guimaraes
- A. Ndoye CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 57 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Gustavo Silva RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 51 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 20% of his position)
Porto
- Gabri Veiga AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 59 · Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Diogo Costa GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 58 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek, 30 · Porto · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 75
Jan Bednarek, 30, plays as a centre-back for Porto in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and interceptions. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 100% |
| Interceptions | 2.29 / 90 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 92% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.18 / 90 | 92% |
| Clearances | 6.67 / 90 | 87% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Reads the game, Secure passer.
- What Jan Bednarek is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jan Bednarek's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto prediction
Porto should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 0.91 for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.62 for Porto - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 49%. Porto have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 Porto
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto: what the numbers say
- 1. Porto win, the likeliest result 60% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 54% by the model, 2.53 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto: questions and answers
When is Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto is on Monday 9 November 2026, in Liga Portugal.
Where is Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto played?
At Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães, Vitoria Guimaraes's home ground.
Who will win Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?
Porto are the favourites: Vitoria Guimaraes 16%, draw 23%, Porto 60%. Our prediction is Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 Porto.
Who is the player to watch in Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?
Jan Bednarek of Porto: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.