Werder Bremen 2-2 Paderborn: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How the match unfolded

Paderborn struck first through Stefano Marino in the 18th minute, set up by Steffen Tigges. Steffen Tigges made it 0-2 to Paderborn in the 30th minute. Niclas Füllkrug made it 1-2 to Werder Bremen in the 59th minute, set up by Eren Dinkçi. Werder Bremen levelled at 2-2 in the 65th minute through Niclas Füllkrug from the penalty spot.

Paderborn led by two and were pegged back: Werder Bremen came back for a draw.

It was 0-2 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Niclas Füllkrug scored twice.

The referee, R. Schröder, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Werder Bremen and 1 to Paderborn.

Werder Bremen: D. Thioune, 4-2-3-1 · Paderborn: R. Kettemann, 3-1-4-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.00 at 1.95, and on 2-2 it lost.

The estimate's most likely result was a Werder Bremen win at 52%; a draw, at 24%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.0 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 57%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The bookmakers, margin removed, had a Werder Bremen win at 49%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.26 for Werder Bremen and 2.50 for Paderborn.

Paderborn created the better chances, 2.50 xG to 1.26, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Werder Bremen to create more, and Paderborn did.

Werder Bremen had 11 shots on target, Paderborn 4.

Paderborn's goalkeeper made 9 saves.

Werder Bremen had 61% of the ball.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Werder Bremen came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.40 expected goals for and 1.68 against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Paderborn came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and had won 17% of their matches.

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Nahuel Noll (Paderborn), rated 9.0 by Sportmonks.

Werder Bremen

• Niclas Füllkrug 8.0 2 goals
• Youri Regeer 7.7
• Mitchell Weiser 7.3
• Olivier Deman 7.3
• Marco Grüll 7.2

Paderborn

• Nahuel Noll 9.0
• Steffen Tigges 7.6 1 goal, 1 assist
• Santiago Castañeda 7.4
• Stefano Marino 7.2 1 goal
• Tjark Scheller 7.1

The lowest-rated starter was Ludovit Reis at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Werder Bremen: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga
• Paderborn: Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Werder Bremen vs Paderborn

What was the score in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?

Werder Bremen 2-2 Paderborn (half-time 0-2), Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October 2026.

Who scored in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?

Stefano Marino 18', Steffen Tigges 30', Niclas Füllkrug 59', Niclas Füllkrug 65'.

Did Moneyball predict Werder Bremen vs Paderborn correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.00 at 1.95, and on 2-2 it lost.

Who was man of the match in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?

Nahuel Noll, rated 9.0 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?

R. Schröder.