Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen · updated 2026-10-17
Werder Bremen welcome TSG Hoffenheim to Wohninvest Weserstadion in Bremen in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Werder Bremen have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. TSG Hoffenheim have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Werder Bremen are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 22% and TSG Hoffenheim at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Werder Bremen 2.08, TSG Hoffenheim 1.66.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Werder Bremen: form and key numbers
In style Werder Bremen play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.40 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.6).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 6.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 18.6 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 58.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim: season averages side by side
| Werder Bremen | Per match this season | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 2.6 |
| 1.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| 1.68 | xG conceded | 1.61 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 18.6 |
| 6.8 | On target | 4.8 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 58.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Werder Bremen
- Youri Regeer DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 69 · Hard to dribble past, Press-resistant (top 12% of his position)
- Marco Grüll LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Draws fouls, Creator (top 13% of his position)
TSG Hoffenheim
- Vladimír Coufal RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 7% of his position)
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug, 33 · Werder Bremen · CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 70
Niclas Füllkrug, 33, plays as a centre-forward for Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 74% | 98% |
| Goals | 0.93 / 90 | 90% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.96 / 90 | 76% |
| Shots | 3.52 / 90 | 75% |
| Key passes | 1.48 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Clinical finisher.
- What Niclas Füllkrug is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Niclas Füllkrug's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction
TSG Hoffenheim should have more of the ball, with Werder Bremen likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Werder Bremen go long and direct; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.08 for Werder Bremen and 1.66 for TSG Hoffenheim - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 71%. Werder Bremen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Werder Bremen 2-1 TSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim betting tips
- Tip 1: Werder Bremen win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.74 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
- Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sunday 25 October 2026
Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim: questions and answers
When is Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim played?
At Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen, Werder Bremen's home ground.
Who will win Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Werder Bremen are the favourites: Werder Bremen 47%, draw 22%, TSG Hoffenheim 31%. Our prediction is Werder Bremen 2-1 TSG Hoffenheim.
Who is the player to watch in Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Niclas Füllkrug of Werder Bremen: a pressing forward with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.