Scouting Players Research
Arsenal vs Leeds United: Why Dominic Calvert-Lewin Is the Player to Watch
Published 2026-10-09 · updated 2026-10-09 · data: Sportmonks, season 2026/2027
Arsenal host Leeds United in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October. On this season's numbers Moneyball's model makes Arsenal favourites at 46%, with Leeds at 26%. But one player can turn a match like this, and the numbers of Moneyball Scout - the engine behind our Scouting Players Research - single out Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Leeds United.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin: Target man, 29
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Leeds United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and aerial duels won. Weakest in key passes. His Moneyball Score is 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
| # | Figure | Per 90 | Better than |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG per shot | 96% of centre-forwards |
| 2 | Aerial duels won | 5.13 per 90 | 95% of centre-forwards |
| 3 | Duels won | 6.20 per 90 | 87% of centre-forwards |
| 4 | Expected goals | 0.52 per 90 | 86% of centre-forwards |
Arsenal concede 0.8 goals a match this season from 0.92 expected. A target man is how a side with less of the ball gets to that defence: long balls, crosses and set pieces.
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
The match in numbers
- Moneyball's estimate: Arsenal 46%, draw 28%, Leeds United 26%.
- Expected goals: Arsenal 1.44, Leeds United 1.01; over 2.5 goals 44%.
- The full preview, with the bookmaker odds with the margin taken out: Arsenal vs Leeds United preview.
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How the figures are made: Sportmonks' season statistics for every player in Europe's top five leagues, per 90 minutes and adjusted for league strength, regressed toward the average of the position while minutes are few, and ranked against players in the same position. The Moneyball Score weighs what each position asks for. Early in a season every figure moves; it is an estimate, not a verdict.
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