Arsenal vs Leeds United: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Arsenal host Leeds United in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Arsenal clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 20% and Leeds United at 12%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.8% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Arsenal -1.25 at 1.83, Leeds United at 2.07. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Form in numbers
- Arsenal create more: 1.79 expected goals a match against 1.44 for Leeds United.
- Arsenal give away less, 0.92 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Arsenal 12.8 (4.8 on target), Leeds United 12.2 (3.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Arsenal 65.8%, Leeds United 41.0%.
| Arsenal | Per match | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.79 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 1.39 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 12.2 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 65.8 | Pressure share % | 41.0 |
| 11.6 | Tackles | 17.8 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Arsenal won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Leeds United | 0 – 4 | Arsenal |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Arsenal | 5 – 0 | Leeds United |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Arsenal vs Leeds United in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
- Aston Villa vs Brentford Saturday 10 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC Saturday 10 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Fulham Saturday 10 October 2026
- Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 10 October 2026
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.