AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 11
Premier League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · updated 2026-11-13
AFC Bournemouth welcome Nottingham Forest to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in Premier League Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
AFC Bournemouth have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Nottingham Forest have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AFC Bournemouth are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 27% and Nottingham Forest at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.58, Nottingham Forest 1.09.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
AFC Bournemouth: form and key numbers
In style AFC Bournemouth press high, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 1.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.0).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Nottingham Forest: form and key numbers
In style Nottingham Forest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.9).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: season averages side by side
| AFC Bournemouth | Per match this season | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.08 | xG conceded | 1.19 |
| 14.2 | Shots | 16.3 |
| 4.9 | On target | 3.6 |
| 47.8 | Possession % | 45.0 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
AFC Bournemouth
- António Silva CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- James Hill CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Nottingham Forest
- Ola Aina RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- James McAtee CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 54 · Chance creator, Creator (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26 · Nottingham Forest · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 69
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26, plays as an attacking midfielder for Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 69
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 66
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.89 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 2.67 / 90 | 86% |
| Through balls | 0.11 / 90 | 80% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.44 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Morgan Gibbs-White is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Morgan Gibbs-White's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest prediction
AFC Bournemouth should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.58 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.09 for Nottingham Forest - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 53%. AFC Bournemouth have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Nottingham Forest
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: what the numbers say
- 1. AFC Bournemouth unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.67 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: questions and answers
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 11.
Where is AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, AFC Bournemouth's home ground.
Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
AFC Bournemouth are the favourites: AFC Bournemouth 48%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 25%. Our prediction is AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who is the player to watch in AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.