Newcastle United vs Arsenal Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 11
Premier League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne · updated 2026-11-13
Newcastle United welcome Arsenal to St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne in Premier League Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Newcastle United have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate. Arsenal have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 90% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 44% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 26% and Newcastle United at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Newcastle United 0.93, Arsenal 1.66.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Newcastle United: form and key numbers
In style Newcastle United are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 70% of matches (57% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Newcastle United vs Arsenal: season averages side by side
| Newcastle United | Per match this season | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 1.84 | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 12.2 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.8 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 59.8 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 70% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Newcastle United
- Sven Botman CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 67 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Lewis Hall LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Arsenal
- Martin Ødegaard AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 74 · Through-ball threat, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 71 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke, 24 · Arsenal · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 76
Noni Madueke, 24, plays as a winger for Arsenal in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and successful dribbles. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.79 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.95 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 90% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.69 / 90 | 89% |
| Big chances created | 0.21 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Dribbler, Creator.
- What Noni Madueke is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Noni Madueke's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction
Arsenal should have more of the ball, with Newcastle United likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 0.93 for Newcastle United and 1.66 for Arsenal - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 50%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Newcastle United 1-2 Arsenal
Newcastle United vs Arsenal: what the numbers say
- 1. Arsenal unbeaten (win or draw) 80% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.60 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 22 November 2026
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Newcastle United vs Arsenal: questions and answers
When is Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Newcastle United vs Arsenal is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 11.
Where is Newcastle United vs Arsenal played?
At St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle United's home ground.
Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are the favourites: Newcastle United 20%, draw 26%, Arsenal 54%. Our prediction is Newcastle United 1-2 Arsenal.
Who is the player to watch in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Noni Madueke of Arsenal: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.