MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Aldosivi 0-2 River Plate: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Aldosivi 0-2 River Plate

River Plate beat Aldosivi 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina Matchday 16 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Estadio José María Minella. The goals: Lucas Beltrán 76', Ángel Correa 90+1'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.

How River Plate won it

The opening goal came in the 76th minute: Lucas Beltrán from the penalty spot for River Plate. Ángel Correa made it 0-2 to River Plate in the 90th minute (+1), set up by Francisco Ortega.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The referee, B. Ferreyra, showed 7 yellow cards: 6 to Aldosivi and 1 to River Plate.

Aldosivi: J. Sanguinetti, 4-2-3-1 · River Plate: L. Ponzio, 4-3-1-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A River Plate win was the estimate's call at 60%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-2 was the likeliest, 0-2 the real one.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.5 expected, 2 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 46%; with 2 goals the under came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 46%; they did not both score, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 3.13 for Aldosivi and 0.06 for River Plate.

Aldosivi scored about 3.1 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

River Plate made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.9 goals.

Aldosivi created the better chances, 3.13 xG to 0.06, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected River Plate to create more, and Aldosivi did.

Aldosivi had 0 shots on target, River Plate 9.

Aldosivi's goalkeeper made 7 saves.

River Plate had 67% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Aldosivi came into it with 32 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 0.93 expected goals for and 1.83 against, and had won 9% of their matches.

River Plate came into it with 36 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.66 expected goals for and 0.74 against, and had won 53% of their matches.

Aldosivi vs River Plate: the match in numbers

AldosiviMatch statisticsRiver Plate
33%Ball possession67%
3.13Expected goals (xG)0.06
2Total shots23
0Shots on target9
0Big chances2
262Total passes542
66%Pass accuracy83%
1Corners8
18Fouls4
2Offsides1
27Tackles13
7Saves0
4Yellow cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Lucas Acosta (Aldosivi), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.

Aldosivi

River Plate

The lowest-rated starter was Nico Gaitán at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Aldosivi vs River Plate

What was the score in Aldosivi vs River Plate?

Aldosivi 0-2 River Plate (half-time 0-0), Liga Profesional Argentina, Thursday 5 November 2026.

Who scored in Aldosivi vs River Plate?

Lucas Beltrán 76', Ángel Correa 90+1'.

Did Moneyball predict Aldosivi vs River Plate correctly?

A River Plate win was the estimate's call at 60%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-2 was the likeliest, 0-2 the real one.

Who was man of the match in Aldosivi vs River Plate?

Lucas Acosta, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Aldosivi vs River Plate?

B. Ferreyra.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.