River Plate vs Lanús Prediction and Stats
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Estadio Mâs Monumental, Capital Federal · updated 2026-11-13
River Plate welcome Lanús to Estadio Mâs Monumental in Capital Federal in Liga Profesional Argentina action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
River Plate have played 36 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 20 matches, with a 58% win rate. Lanús have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 39% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 17 matches, with a 46% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, River Plate are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 28% and Lanús at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: River Plate 1.45, Lanús 0.82.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (36 and 33 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
River Plate: form and key numbers
In style River Plate keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 0.74 conceded (goals minus xG: -9.8).
- Shots: 16.4 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 63.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 39% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Lanús: form and key numbers
In style Lanús play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.03 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 39% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
River Plate vs Lanús: season averages side by side
| River Plate | Per match this season | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Matches | 33 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 0.74 | xG conceded | 1.03 |
| 16.4 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 5.4 | On target | 4.2 |
| 63.9 | Possession % | 51.7 |
| 39% | Clean sheets % | 42% |
| 36% | Both teams scored % | 39% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
River Plate
- Ángel Correa SS · Dribbling forward · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, High shot volume (top 3% of his position)
- Juan Fernando Quintero AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 69 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Lanús
- Marcelino Moreno AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 64 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 16% of his position)
- Dylan Aquino LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 58 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 21% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nicolás Otamendi
Nicolás Otamendi, 38 · River Plate · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 57
Nicolás Otamendi, 38, plays as a centre-back for River Plate in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in long balls and aerial duels won. Weakest in blocked shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 57
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 48
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 5.75 / 90 | 98% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.44 / 90 | 95% |
| Duels won | 7.38 / 90 | 91% |
| Interceptions | 2.00 / 90 | 80% |
| Passes | 68.75 / 90 | 53% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
Scout's notes: Long passer, Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
- What Nicolás Otamendi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Nicolás Otamendi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
River Plate vs Lanús prediction
River Plate should have more of the ball, with Lanús likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; River Plate go long and direct; Lanús are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.45 for River Plate and 0.82 for Lanús - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 43%. River Plate have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: River Plate 2-0 Lanús
River Plate vs Lanús: what the numbers say
- 1. River Plate unbeaten (win or draw) 80% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 60% by the model, 2.27 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 11.4 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Instituto vs Huracán Monday 23 November 2026
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River Plate vs Lanús: questions and answers
When is River Plate vs Lanús?
River Plate vs Lanús is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 22:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina.
Where is River Plate vs Lanús played?
At Estadio Mâs Monumental, Capital Federal, River Plate's home ground.
Who will win River Plate vs Lanús?
River Plate are the favourites: River Plate 51%, draw 28%, Lanús 20%. Our prediction is River Plate 2-0 Lanús.
Who is the player to watch in River Plate vs Lanús?
Nicolás Otamendi of River Plate: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 57 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in River Plate vs Lanús?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.