Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Prediction and Betting Tips
Liga Profesional · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Argentinos Juniors welcome Independiente Rivadavia to Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal in Liga Profesional action on Wednesday 28 October 2026.
Argentinos Juniors have played 32 matches in Liga Profesional this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 71% win rate. Independiente Rivadavia have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 14 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Argentinos Juniors are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 30% and Independiente Rivadavia at 26%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Argentinos Juniors -0.25 at 1.67, Independiente Rivadavia at 2.05. The main goals line is 2: over 1.70, under 2.00, which gives over 54%.
Argentinos Juniors: form and key numbers
In style Argentinos Juniors keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.10 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 61.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (64% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Independiente Rivadavia: form and key numbers
In style Independiente Rivadavia play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.3).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 48.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (86% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: season averages side by side
| Argentinos Juniors | Per match | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.10 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 1.19 | Goals | 1.57 |
| 13.9 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 1.3 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 54.9 | Pressure share % | 45.6 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 16.9 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 30 measured matches.
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Argentinos Juniors have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Argentinos Juniors 3, Independiente Rivadavia 7 - 2.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Independiente Rivadavia 3-1 Argentinos Juniors (April 11th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Argentinos Juniors won 0, drew 1 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Independiente Rivadavia | 3 – 1 | Argentinos Juniors |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Independiente Rivadavia | 2 – 1 | Argentinos Juniors |
| 24 Feb 2025 | Argentinos Juniors | 0 – 0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 3 Dec 2024 | Independiente Rivadavia | 2 – 1 | Argentinos Juniors |
Players to watch
Argentinos Juniors
- Francisco Álvarez CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 10% of his position)
- Claudio Bravo LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 52 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Independiente Rivadavia
- Luis Sequeira AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 57 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Matías Reali RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Álex Arce
Álex Arce, 31 · Independiente Rivadavia · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62
Álex Arce, 31, plays as a centre-forward for Independiente Rivadavia in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 6.13 / 90 | 99% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 94% |
| Duels won | 8.64 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 68% |
| Shots on target | 44% | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner.
- What Álex Arce is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia prediction
Argentinos Juniors should have more of the ball, with Independiente Rivadavia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.24 for Argentinos Juniors and 0.97 for Independiente Rivadavia - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 45%. Argentinos Juniors have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Argentinos Juniors 2-0 Independiente Rivadavia
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia betting tips
- Tip 1: Argentinos Juniors win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 2.21 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: questions and answers
When is Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in Liga Profesional.
Where is Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia played?
At Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Capital Federal, Argentinos Juniors's home ground.
Who will win Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Argentinos Juniors are the favourites: Argentinos Juniors 44%, draw 30%, Independiente Rivadavia 26%. Our prediction is Argentinos Juniors 2-0 Independiente Rivadavia.
Who is the player to watch in Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Álex Arce of Independiente Rivadavia: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
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