Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14
Liga Profesional Argentina · Tuesday 27 October 2026 · 00:15 UTC · Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela · updated 2026-10-25
Instituto welcome Deportivo Riestra to Estadio Nuevo Monumental in Rafaela in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14 action on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 00:15 UTC.
Instituto have played 29 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 52% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 14 matches, with a 60% win rate. Deportivo Riestra have played 29 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 10% of them. Away from home they average 0.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 14 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Instituto are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 32% and Deportivo Riestra at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Instituto 1.23, Deportivo Riestra 0.56.
- Over 2.5 goals: 27% · both teams to score: 31%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (29 and 29 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Instituto: form and key numbers
In style Instituto press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 0.80 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.8).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 34% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Deportivo Riestra: form and key numbers
In style Deportivo Riestra are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.89 a match created, 0.95 conceded (goals minus xG: -10.7).
- Shots: 10.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 36.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 34% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 28% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra: season averages side by side
| Instituto | Per match this season | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Matches | 29 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.89 |
| 0.80 | xG conceded | 0.95 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 10.4 |
| 4.4 | On target | 3.4 |
| 47.5 | Possession % | 36.0 |
| 34% | Clean sheets % | 34% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 28% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Instituto
- Jeremías Lázaro AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 53 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 8% of his position)
- Agustín Massaccesi CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 40 · Duel winner, Reads the game (top 25% of his position)
Deportivo Riestra
- Miguel Barbieri CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 45 · Dominant in the air, Reads the game (top 30% of his position)
- Ignacio Arce GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 43 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Fernando Alarcón
Fernando Alarcón, 32 · Instituto · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 37
Fernando Alarcón, 32, plays as a centre-back for Instituto in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in tackles and long balls. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 2.29 / 90 | 81% |
| Long balls | 3.69 / 90 | 77% |
| Interceptions | 1.57 / 90 | 51% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.50 / 90 | 50% |
| Clearances | 6.23 / 90 | 46% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Ball-winner.
- What Fernando Alarcón is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Fernando Alarcón's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra prediction
Instituto should have more of the ball, with Deportivo Riestra likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 1.8 goals - 1.23 for Instituto and 0.56 for Deportivo Riestra - with over 2.5 goals at 27% and both teams scoring at 31%. Instituto have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Instituto 2-0 Deportivo Riestra
Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra betting tips
- Tip 1: Instituto win or draw (double chance) 84% between them
- Tip 2: Under 1.5 goals 46% by the model, 1.79 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
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- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Huracán vs Tigre Friday 30 October 2026
Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra: questions and answers
When is Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra?
Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra is on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 00:15 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14.
Where is Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra played?
At Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela, Instituto's home ground.
Who will win Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra?
Instituto are the favourites: Instituto 52%, draw 32%, Deportivo Riestra 16%. Our prediction is Instituto 2-0 Deportivo Riestra.
Who is the player to watch in Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra?
Fernando Alarcón of Instituto: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 37 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra?
Moneyball's model expects about 1.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 27%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.