Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 6
Premier League · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Crystal Palace welcome Nottingham Forest to Selhurst Park in London in Premier League Gameweek 6 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Crystal Palace have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Nottingham Forest have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Crystal Palace 35%, the draw 29%, Nottingham Forest 36%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Crystal Palace 0 at 1.96, Nottingham Forest at 1.94. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.04, under 1.84, which gives over 47%.
Crystal Palace: form and key numbers
In style Crystal Palace are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created, 2.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Nottingham Forest: form and key numbers
In style Nottingham Forest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created, 1.08 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 16.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: season averages side by side
| Crystal Palace | Per match | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 1.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.50 |
| 2.25 | xG conceded | 1.08 |
| 1.20 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 16.4 |
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 2.6 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 33.4 | Pressure share % | 55.9 |
| 22.6 | Tackles | 18.2 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Crystal Palace have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Crystal Palace 3, Nottingham Forest 4 - 1.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace (February 1st 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Crystal Palace won 0, drew 3 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Nottingham Forest | 1 – 1 | Crystal Palace |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Crystal Palace | 1 – 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 5 May 2025 | Crystal Palace | 1 – 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 21 Oct 2024 | Nottingham Forest | 1 – 0 | Crystal Palace |
Players to watch
Crystal Palace
- Dean Henderson GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 12% of his position)
- Yéremy Pino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
Nottingham Forest
Scouting spotlight: Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26 · Nottingham Forest · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 67
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26, plays as an attacking midfielder for Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and big chances created. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 83% |
| Fouls won | 1.60 / 90 | 69% |
| Expected goals | 0.26 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Big-chance creator, Chance creator.
- What Morgan Gibbs-White is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Morgan Gibbs-White's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest prediction
Nottingham Forest should have more of the ball; Nottingham Forest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.18 for Crystal Palace and 1.52 for Nottingham Forest - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.70 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 5.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: questions and answers
When is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 6.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest played?
At Selhurst Park, London, Crystal Palace's home ground.
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
It is close: Crystal Palace 35%, draw 29%, Nottingham Forest 36%. Our prediction is Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who is the player to watch in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.