Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction and Betting Tips
Brasileirao · Tuesday 27 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Flamengo welcome Atletico Mineiro to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirao action on Tuesday 27 October 2026.
Flamengo have played 31 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 65% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 55% win rate. Atletico Mineiro have played 31 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 45% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 15 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Flamengo are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and Atletico Mineiro at 11%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (8.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Flamengo -1.5 at 1.74, Atletico Mineiro at 2.01. The main goals line is 3: over 1.86, under 1.86, which gives over 50%.
Flamengo: form and key numbers
In style Flamengo keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.3).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Atletico Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atletico Mineiro play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro: season averages side by side
| Flamengo | Per match | Atletico Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 1.73 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 0.96 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 1.97 | Goals | 1.35 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 5.7 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 65.6 | Pressure share % | 49.2 |
| 15.2 | Tackles | 12.7 |
| 11.9 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 31 and 31 measured matches.
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Flamengo have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Flamengo 10, Atletico Mineiro 3 - 2.6 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Atletico Mineiro 0-4 Flamengo (April 26th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Flamengo won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Atletico Mineiro | 0 – 4 | Flamengo |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Atletico Mineiro | 1 – 1 | Flamengo |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Flamengo | 1 – 0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 13 Nov 2024 | Flamengo | 0 – 0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Atletico Mineiro | 2 – 4 | Flamengo |
Players to watch
Flamengo
- Samuel Lino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Gonzalo Plata RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 17% of his position)
Atletico Mineiro
- Tomás Cuello LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 25% of his position)
- Alexsander DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jorge Carrascal
Jorge Carrascal, 28 · Flamengo · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 74
Jorge Carrascal, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Flamengo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 74
- RW · Winger Natural, 74
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 3.26 / 90 | 93% |
| Big chances created | 0.77 / 90 | 93% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.73 / 90 | 84% |
| Fouls won | 2.05 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Jorge Carrascal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jorge Carrascal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro prediction
Flamengo should have more of the ball, with Atletico Mineiro likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Flamengo press high to win the ball back; Atletico Mineiro go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.75 for Flamengo and 0.86 for Atletico Mineiro - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 48%. Flamengo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Flamengo 2-1 Atletico Mineiro
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro betting tips
- Tip 1: Flamengo to win 72% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.61 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 14.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro: questions and answers
When is Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro is on Tuesday 27 October 2026, in Brasileirao.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro played?
At Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Flamengo's home ground.
Who will win Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Flamengo are the favourites: Flamengo 72%, draw 17%, Atletico Mineiro 11%. Our prediction is Flamengo 2-1 Atletico Mineiro.
Who is the player to watch in Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Jorge Carrascal of Flamengo: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
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