Coritiba vs Grêmio Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 32
Brasileirão · Monday 26 October 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · updated 2026-10-25
Coritiba welcome Grêmio to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba in Brasileirão Gameweek 32 action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Coritiba have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. Grêmio have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 23% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Coritiba are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Grêmio at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Coritiba 1.58, Grêmio 1.23.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Coritiba: form and key numbers
In style Coritiba are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 40.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 52% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 10.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Grêmio: form and key numbers
In style Grêmio play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Coritiba vs Grêmio: season averages side by side
| Coritiba | Per match this season | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.94 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 3.3 | On target | 3.7 |
| 40.3 | Possession % | 49.5 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 52% | Both teams scored % | 61% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Coritiba
- Rodrigo Moledo CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 56 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Pedro Morisco GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 12% of his position)
Grêmio
Scouting spotlight: Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins, 24 · Grêmio · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 54
Gustavo Martins, 24, plays as a centre-back for Grêmio in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and dribbled past. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 54
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 3.41 / 90 | 88% |
| Dribbled past | 0.22 / 90 | 83% |
| Duels won | 5.36 / 90 | 71% |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 63% |
| Long balls | 2.65 / 90 | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past.
- What Gustavo Martins is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gustavo Martins's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Coritiba vs Grêmio prediction
Grêmio should have more of the ball, with Coritiba likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.58 for Coritiba and 1.23 for Grêmio - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. Coritiba have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Coritiba 2-1 Grêmio
Coritiba vs Grêmio betting tips
- Tip 1: Coritiba win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.81 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 19.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Thursday 29 October 2026
Coritiba vs Grêmio: questions and answers
When is Coritiba vs Grêmio?
Coritiba vs Grêmio is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 32.
Where is Coritiba vs Grêmio played?
At Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, Coritiba's home ground.
Who will win Coritiba vs Grêmio?
Coritiba are the favourites: Coritiba 45%, draw 26%, Grêmio 29%. Our prediction is Coritiba 2-1 Grêmio.
Who is the player to watch in Coritiba vs Grêmio?
Gustavo Martins of Grêmio: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 54 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Grêmio?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.