Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Malaga CF welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Malaga CF have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Real Sociedad have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Malaga CF 31%, the draw 28%, Real Sociedad 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Malaga CF +0.5 at 1.74, Real Sociedad at 2.19. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.79, under 2.09, which gives over 54%.
Malaga CF: form and key numbers
In style Malaga CF take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created, 1.84 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
In style Real Sociedad play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad: season averages side by side
| Malaga CF | Per match | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| 1.84 | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 0.43 | Goals | 1.29 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 0.4 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 35.0 | Pressure share % | 46.2 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 17.7 |
| 12.9 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
Malaga CF
- Alfonso Herrero GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 19% of his position)
- Pablo Martínez CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 55 · Chance creator, Long passer (top 14% of his position)
Real Sociedad
- Carlos Soler CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Gets into scoring positions, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Jon Aramburu RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Gómez
Sergio Gómez, 26 · Real Sociedad · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 61
Sergio Gómez, 26, plays as a full-back for Real Sociedad in La Liga. Strongest for his role in passes and key passes. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 61
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 52.69 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.22 / 90 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.91 / 90 | 85% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.61 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Chance creator, Secure passer.
- What Sergio Gómez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Gómez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad prediction
Malaga CF should have more of the ball; Malaga CF like to take players on; Real Sociedad go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.18 for Malaga CF and 1.35 for Real Sociedad - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Malaga CF 1-1 Real Sociedad
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.53 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 12.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
When is Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad?
Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Where is Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad played?
At Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga, Malaga CF's home ground.
Who will win Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad?
It is close: Malaga CF 31%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad 41%. Our prediction is Malaga CF 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Who is the player to watch in Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad?
Sergio Gómez of Real Sociedad: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.