Elche CF vs Celta Vigo Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 8
La Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Elche CF welcome Celta Vigo to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche in La Liga Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Elche CF have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 3.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Celta Vigo have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Elche CF 33%, the draw 29%, Celta Vigo 38%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Elche CF 0 at 2.11, Celta Vigo at 1.80. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Elche CF: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Celta Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.01 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Elche CF vs Celta Vigo: season averages side by side
| Elche CF | Per match | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.01 |
| 1.70 | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 1.57 | Goals | 1.14 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 41.7 | Pressure share % | 51.7 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Elche CF vs Celta Vigo: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Elche CF have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Elche CF 3, Celta Vigo 4 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche CF (May 3rd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Elche CF won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Celta Vigo | 3 – 1 | Elche CF |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Elche CF | 2 – 1 | Celta Vigo |
Players to watch
Elche CF
- Federico Redondo DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 6% of his position)
- Gonzalo Villar CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 53 · Dribbler, Ball-winner (top 23% of his position)
Celta Vigo
- Javi Rueda RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Ionuț Radu GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Fer Niño
Fer Niño, 25 · Elche · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 65
Fer Niño, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Elche in La Liga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and aerial duels won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 82% | 99% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.83 / 90 | 94% |
| Goals | 0.96 / 90 | 92% |
| Duels won | 7.47 / 90 | 91% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher.
- What Fer Niño is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Elche CF vs Celta Vigo prediction
Celta Vigo should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.32 for Elche CF and 1.38 for Celta Vigo - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Elche CF 1-1 Celta Vigo
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Elche CF vs Celta Vigo betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Elche CF vs Celta Vigo in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Elche CF vs Celta Vigo: questions and answers
When is Elche CF vs Celta Vigo?
Elche CF vs Celta Vigo is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 8.
Where is Elche CF vs Celta Vigo played?
At Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche, Elche CF's home ground.
Who will win Elche CF vs Celta Vigo?
It is close: Elche CF 33%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 38%. Our prediction is Elche CF 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who is the player to watch in Elche CF vs Celta Vigo?
Fer Niño of Elche: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Elche CF vs Celta Vigo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.