Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 8
La Liga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Alaves welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio de Mendizorroza in Gasteiz in La Liga Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Alaves have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Atletico Madrid have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 71% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Atletico Madrid are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 27% and Alaves at 26%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Alaves +0.25 at 2.21, Atletico Madrid at 1.72. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.92, under 1.97, which gives over 51%.
Alaves: form and key numbers
In style Alaves are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 42.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Atletico Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atletico Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: season averages side by side
| Alaves | Per match | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 1.57 | Goals | 2.29 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.9 |
| 44.8 | Pressure share % | 67.7 |
| 19.0 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Alaves have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Alaves 2, Atletico Madrid 4 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves (January 18th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Alaves won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Atletico Madrid | 1 – 0 | Alaves |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Alaves | 1 – 1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 3 May 2025 | Alaves | 0 – 0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Atletico Madrid | 2 – 1 | Alaves |
Players to watch
Alaves
- Antonio Sivera GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Long passer, Box defender (top 7% of his position)
- Mariano Díaz CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 53 · Accurate shooter, Clinical finisher (top 2% of his position)
Atletico Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 73 · Hard to dribble past, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
- Pablo Barrios CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez, 24 · Deportivo Alavés · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 67
Ángel Pérez, 24, plays as a winger for Deportivo Alavés in La Liga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 1.10 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.41 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.83 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.55 / 90 | 92% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.01 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Ángel Pérez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ángel Pérez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Atletico Madrid should have more of the ball, with Alaves likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Alaves work the ball wide and cross; Atletico Madrid like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.23 for Alaves and 1.33 for Atletico Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 53%. Atletico Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid betting tips
- Tip 1: Atletico Madrid win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.57 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (47%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Alaves vs Atletico Madrid in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: questions and answers
When is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 8.
Where is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid played?
At Estadio de Mendizorroza, Gasteiz, Alaves's home ground.
Who will win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid are the favourites: Alaves 26%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 47%. Our prediction is Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Ángel Pérez of Deportivo Alavés: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
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